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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising together. In an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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